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A Need for Informed Policy Against Critical Cyberattacks: The ROCCA Project
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Urban Warfare: Cities, Crime, and the Future of Conflict
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A Neighbor in Focus: Mexico’s Role in Emerging U.S. Defense & Homeland Security Strategies
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Promoting Evidence-based Policy and Good Governance

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Defense & Security

Jul 18 , 2026

Podcast

Urban Warfare: Cities, Crime, and the Future of Conflict

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In this Orion Talks episode, hosted by Suat Cubukcu, John Sullivan, Nathan Jones, and Daniel Weisz Argomedo explore how urban warfare is reshaping modern conflict. Drawing on their book Urban Operations: War, Crime, and Conflict, they examine the increasingly blurred lines between conventional warfare, organized crime, terrorism, and criminal insurgencies

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Jul 13 , 2026

Op-Ed

A Need for Informed Policy Against Critical Cyberattacks: The ROCCA Project

According to data from the Orion Policy Institute’s newly launched Records of Critical Cyber Attacks (ROCCA) Project, China and Russia account for 458 originated cyberattacks, or 48% of the 954 incidents recorded between 2005 and 2025. The United States is the most targeted country, and these attacks have increased sharply

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Jul 9 , 2026

Policy Brief

Washington’s AI Ban and Reversal Exposed the Bigger Problem: It Can’t Measure Cyber Risk in the Real World

Anthropic’s Mythos/Fable model ban showed Washington acting on a lab signal it could measure while flying blind on the one it can’t. On June 12, the Commerce Department ordered Anthropic to cut off foreign-national access to its two most capable models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5. The reason, according to

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP

Jul 1 , 2026

Research Report

A Neighbor in Focus: Mexico’s Role in Emerging U.S. Defense & Homeland Security Strategies

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Introduction This project evaluates how the 2025 National Security Strategy positions Mexico within U.S. homeland defense and regional security, measuring the alignment between strategic objectives, NORTHCOM/SOUTHCOM posture statements, and operational resourcing. We evaluate these positions to understand Mexico’s place in the current Trump administration’s hemispheric strategies. Mexico’s role in U.S.

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 29 , 2026

Policy Brief

How the War with Iran is Redrawing the Rules of Maritime Power

Following the intensification of the Israeli-US military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program in spring 2025, the region stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean has entered a new phase of strategic turbulence. Beyond missile strikes, air operations, and tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, the conflict is highlighting a deeper transformation

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drodriguez

Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas, OPI-TCP

Jun 15 , 2026

Op-Ed

Tren de Aragua’s Fall and Delcy Rodríguez’s Rise

On June 12, President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces had killed Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, better known as Niño Guerrero, the founder and top leader of Tren de Aragua, in a swift kinetic strike on Venezuelan soil. According to the White House, the operation was conducted in close coordination

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 10 , 2026

Op-Ed

Decapitation Strikes and the Problem of Strategic Prediction

Months after the U.S. agreed to a cease fire with Iran, America has struggled to achieve its core objectives. Iranian military capabilities were severely degraded during the fighting, but neither the U.S. nor Israel has been able to impose its will. Iranian intransigence seems to have surprised American policy makers.

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OPI Summer School 10

May 7 , 2026

Webinar

OPI Intensive Seminar Program on Global Security Threats 2026

Orion Policy Institute (OPI) hosted a day-long online intensive seminar program on Wednesday, June 3, 2026, between 9:45 am – 3 pm (EST) on 2026 Global Security Threats. A certificate will be provided to the attendees who participated fully in all of the seminar sessions! Please expect to receive your

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Latest Research

china iran war

Defense & Security, Indo – Pacific, Middle East, South Asia

Apr 6 , 2026

Policy Brief

China and the War In Iran, High Risk for Marginal Opportunities

China has worked to build a diplomatic position in the Middle East, cultivating an image as a non-interventionist power that can be everyone’s friend and no one’s enemy. However, when the drums of war began to sound over the Strait of Hormuz, China found itself exposed to a conflict it

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tda

Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas, OPI-TCP

Mar 17 , 2026

Policy Brief

Tren de Aragua – Background and Transnational Challenge

Editor’s Note: This policy brief is Part III of an Orion Policy Institute (OPI) Transnational Crime Project (OPI-TCP) series and culminating report examining Venezuela’s transnational criminal networks, their regional security implications, and the evolving U.S. policy response. Introduction The rapid expansion of Tren de Aragua (TdA) from a Venezuelan prison

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Mar 7 , 2026

Policy Brief

The Iran War and Ankara’s Three Strategic Scenarios

The Iran war puts Turkey in a peculiar position, posing several challenges. Since the beginning of the US and Israel’s military confrontation with Iran, Turkey has adopted cautious neutrality, which aimed to avoid the escalation of tensions with either side of the conflict. However, the question is how sustainable Ankara’s

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venezeula gangs

Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas, OPI-TCP

Feb 23 , 2026

Policy Brief

Understanding the Structure and Resilience of Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles

Editor’s Note: This policy brief is Part II of an Orion Policy Institute (OPI) Transnational Crime Project (OPI-TCP) series and culminating report examining Venezuela’s transnational criminal networks, their regional security implications, and the evolving U.S. policy response. In November 2025, the United States designated the Cartel de los Soles (CDS)

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Defense & Security, Americas

Feb 12 , 2026

Policy Brief

A Moment of Strategic Choice: U.S. Policy in a Post-Maduro Hemisphere

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The capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026 marks a strategic inflection point for the United States and the first real stress test of the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) in the Western Hemisphere. More than the apprehension of a leader, Maduro’s removal forces Washington to reconcile competing strategic

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venezuelan soldiers

Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas, OPI-TCP

Feb 4 , 2026

Policy Brief

Venezuela’s Hybrid Criminal Networks and U.S. Regional Strategy

Editor’s Note: This policy brief is Part I of an Orion Policy Institute (OPI) Transnational Crime Project (OPI-TCP) series and culminating report examining Venezuela’s transnational criminal networks, their regional security implications, and the evolving U.S. policy response. For years, U.S. policy toward Venezuela has fluctuated between sanctions, diplomacy, and public

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