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How a Gulf Rift Opened a Second Front for Iran
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APT Profile: Salt Typhoon
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The Siege of the Republic of Iran
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When AI Finds a Software Flaw, Who Decides When the Affected Vendor Is Told?
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Evolving Nature of Terrorism since the September 11 Attacks: al-Qaeda and ISIS Affiliates
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Promoting Evidence-based Policy and Good Governance

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Oct 1 , 2026

Op-Ed

How a Gulf Rift Opened a Second Front for Iran

As of mid-September, the Houthis, after capturing Mokha, the Hanish Islands, and Mayun, hold physical control over the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint through which a large share of Red Sea shipping must pass. Saudi Arabia has begun mobilizing a direct military response to reverse those gains, but even

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OPI-ROCCA

Sep 25 , 2026

Projects

APT Profile: Salt Typhoon

The ROCCA project examines significant cyber incidents and the actors behind them to identify patterns in cyber threats, their targets, and their broader security implications. These APT profiles provide background on the groups responsible for major incidents documented in the ROCCA dataset. Country of Origin China Threat Actor Type State-sponsored

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Sep 23 , 2026

Policy Brief

The Siege of the Republic of Iran

Following months of U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran and repeated diplomatic efforts and ceasefires, the U.S. administration has shifted to a strategy of increased economic pressure against Iran under Operation Economic Outcast. The White House has framed the current strategic shift as primarily an economic campaign (with a dual

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OPI-ROCCA, NextGen

Sep 16 , 2026

Projects

Governing the Breach: Cyber Crisis Response in Germany and the United States

Introduction In December 2024, a cyberattack against the U.S. Department of the Treasury did not begin inside the Treasury. A Chinese state-sponsored actor gained access through a compromised third-party cybersecurity provider. The incident exposed a fundamental problem of modern cyber governance: governments are increasingly responsible for protecting digital infrastructure they

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Cybersecurity, Technology

Sep 14 , 2026

Op-Ed

When AI Finds a Software Flaw, Who Decides When the Affected Vendor Is Told?

In July 2026, the Trump Administration announced GOLD EAGLE, a new federal clearinghouse with the goal of improving cybersecurity vulnerability coordination, using artificial intelligence (AI) to identify software flaws and speed up the time it takes to fix them. While a commendable and necessary effort, the current public details on

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Defense & Security, Terrorism & Extremism, Africa, Middle East

Sep 8 , 2026

Policy Brief

Evolving Nature of Terrorism since the September 11 Attacks: al-Qaeda and ISIS Affiliates

The terrorism threat landscape has changed substantially since September 11, 2001. Over the last quarter of a century, counterterrorism efforts disrupted terrorist networks and decapitate several senior leaders, including the founder of al Qaeda, Usama bin Laden, and his successors, as well as ISIS leadership. Despite al Qaeda being pushed

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Defense & Security, Technology

Sep 5 , 2026

Policy Brief

Folly, Persuasion, and Deceit: Artificial Intelligence and the Coming Crisis of Overconfidence in Strategic Nuclear Affairs

Introduction Artificial intelligence (AI) is seeping steadily into strategic nuclear affairs. In 2018, a RAND Corporation study reasoned that by 2040, an AI could advise humans on matters of escalation without connecting directly to nuclear launchers, based on the progress AI is making in “increasingly complex and poorly specified tasks.”[1]

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Data Privacy & Governance Hub

Sep 3 , 2026

Projects

Utah Law Strengthens Student Privacy Protections for Educational Technology

Key Takeaways Researchers at Brigham Young University (BYU) reported that some educational technology (EdTech) applications used in Utah K-12 schools collected and shared student data in ways that violated privacy agreements. Utah House Bill 55, which took effect on July 1, 2026, increased privacy requirements for EdTech vendors by allowing

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Latest Research

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jul 23 , 2026

Policy Brief

The Impact of Iranian Military Doctrine on the Iran War

Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, the United States spent about forty days in major combat operations against the Republic of Iran, followed by just over ninety days of a fragile ceasefire framework and attempted negotiations, punctuated by intermittent kinetic operations. As Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the

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Cybersecurity, Technology

Jul 9 , 2026

Policy Brief

Washington’s AI Ban and Reversal Exposed the Bigger Problem: It Can’t Measure Cyber Risk in the Real World

Anthropic’s Mythos/Fable model ban showed Washington acting on a lab signal it could measure while flying blind on the one it can’t. On June 12, the Commerce Department ordered Anthropic to cut off foreign-national access to its two most capable models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5. The reason, according to

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP

Jul 1 , 2026

Research Report

A Neighbor in Focus: Mexico’s Role in Emerging U.S. Defense & Homeland Security Strategies

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Introduction This project evaluates how the 2025 National Security Strategy positions Mexico within U.S. homeland defense and regional security, measuring the alignment between strategic objectives, NORTHCOM/SOUTHCOM posture statements, and operational resourcing. We evaluate these positions to understand Mexico’s place in the current Trump administration’s hemispheric strategies. Mexico’s role in U.S.

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 29 , 2026

Policy Brief

How the War with Iran is Redrawing the Rules of Maritime Power

Following the intensification of the Israeli-US military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program in spring 2025, the region stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean has entered a new phase of strategic turbulence. Beyond missile strikes, air operations, and tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, the conflict is highlighting a deeper transformation

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Defense & Security, Terrorism & Extremism, Africa, Europe & Central Asia

May 6 , 2026

Policy Brief

Mali’s Fracture Will be Felt in West Africa and Beyond

Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM is on the brink of taking over northern Mali and toppling the Malian junta, and while it is unlikely to directly seize power across Mali, Mali’s fracturing will have seismic consequences in West Africa and beyond. The group launched its most coordinated and significant offensive

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP

Apr 28 , 2026

Policy Brief

An Alternative Assessment of President Trump’s Strategy in Venezuela

Editor’s Note: This policy brief is Part V of an Orion Policy Institute (OPI) Transnational Crime Project (OPI-TCP) series. While unprecedented and unexpected, it increasingly appears that the United States’ capture of Nicolas Maduro in January 2026 was more than an isolated regional event. Instead, it was a broader strategic

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