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A Neighbor in Focus: Mexico’s Role in Emerging U.S. Defense & Homeland Security Strategies
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How the War with Iran is Redrawing the Rules of Maritime Power
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Tren de Aragua’s Fall and Delcy Rodríguez’s Rise
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Promoting Evidence-based Policy and Good Governance

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP: Transnational Crime Project

Jul 1 , 2026

Research Report

A Neighbor in Focus: Mexico’s Role in Emerging U.S. Defense & Homeland Security Strategies

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Introduction This project evaluates how the 2025 National Security Strategy positions Mexico within U.S. homeland defense and regional security, measuring the alignment between strategic objectives, NORTHCOM/SOUTHCOM posture statements, and operational resourcing. We evaluate these positions to understand Mexico’s place in the current Trump administration’s hemispheric strategies. Mexico’s role in U.S.

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 29 , 2026

Policy Brief

How the War with Iran is Redrawing the Rules of Maritime Power

Following the intensification of the Israeli-US military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program in spring 2025, the region stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean has entered a new phase of strategic turbulence. Beyond missile strikes, air operations, and tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, the conflict is highlighting a deeper transformation

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas, OPI-TCP: Transnational Crime Project

Jun 15 , 2026

Op-Ed

Tren de Aragua’s Fall and Delcy Rodríguez’s Rise

On June 12, President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces had killed Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, better known as Niño Guerrero, the founder and top leader of Tren de Aragua, in a swift kinetic strike on Venezuelan soil. According to the White House, the operation was conducted in close coordination

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 10 , 2026

Op-Ed

Decapitation Strikes and the Problem of Strategic Prediction

Months after the U.S. agreed to a cease fire with Iran, America has struggled to achieve its core objectives. Iranian military capabilities were severely degraded during the fighting, but neither the U.S. nor Israel has been able to impose its will. Iranian intransigence seems to have surprised American policy makers.

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OPI Summer School 10

May 7 , 2026

Webinar

OPI Intensive Seminar Program on Global Security Threats 2026

Orion Policy Institute (OPI) hosted a day-long online intensive seminar program on Wednesday, June 3, 2026, between 9:45 am – 3 pm (EST) on 2026 Global Security Threats. A certificate will be provided to the attendees who participated fully in all of the seminar sessions! Please expect to receive your

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Defense & Security, Terrorism & Extremism, Africa, Europe & Central Asia

May 6 , 2026

Policy Brief

Mali’s Fracture Will be Felt in West Africa and Beyond

Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM is on the brink of taking over northern Mali and toppling the Malian junta, and while it is unlikely to directly seize power across Mali, Mali’s fracturing will have seismic consequences in West Africa and beyond. The group launched its most coordinated and significant offensive

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Crime & Justice, Americas

May 1 , 2026

Op-Ed

When Even the Rural Communities Fall Victim: Haiti’s Descent into Gang Rule Demands Immediate Action

Haiti’s security crisis is no longer confined to the streets of Port-au-Prince or the headlines of political instability. It has reached into places once untouched by the gang violence—rural homes, places of worship, and faith-based properties. With the strength to seize property and kill those connected to it, the new

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP: Transnational Crime Project

Apr 28 , 2026

Policy Brief

An Alternative Assessment of President Trump’s Strategy in Venezuela

Editor’s Note: This policy brief is Part V of an Orion Policy Institute (OPI) Transnational Crime Project (OPI-TCP) series. While unprecedented and unexpected, it increasingly appears that the United States’ capture of Nicolas Maduro in January 2026 was more than an isolated regional event. Instead, it was a broader strategic

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Latest Research

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Democracy & Human Rights, Terrorism & Extremism, Africa

Nov 11 , 2025

Policy Brief

Sudan: Theatre Where Many, Competing Interests Meet and Clash

After 18 months of siege marked by starvation, targeted killings, and sexual violence, El Fasher – the capital of North Darfur – fell to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). As of the time of this writing, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) control most of the north, east, and central regions,

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Defense & Security, Africa

Nov 6 , 2025

Policy Brief

Bridging Land and Sea: Rethinking Security in the Red Sea Arena

The Red Sea has shifted from a central shipping lane to a strategically important area linking Africa, Arabia, the Indo-Pacific, and global powers. The distinction between land and sea is fading — as are old assumptions about regional order. From Peripheral Sea to Global Chokepoint Long seen as a peripheral

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Defense & Security, South Asia

Oct 31 , 2025

Policy Brief

ASEAN Summit 2025: Navigating Great-Power Rivalry in Kuala Lumpur

From October 25 to 28, the ASEAN 47th Summit in Kuala Lumpur became the world’s most important diplomatic scenario. The summit gathered thirty heads of state and government, including U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. The gathering, thus, has been crucial not only for the future of

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Americas

Oct 24 , 2025

Research

Funding Gaps and Service Cuts: Reimagining Public Transit for an Equitable Future

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Executive Summary Many major American metropolitan public transportation organizations are confronting critical funding shortfalls in the coming years, which they warn will force them to implement drastic service reductions and fare increases without further investment. Among other benefits, public transportation is a vital resource for vulnerable and disadvantaged communities, who

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Defense & Security, Europe & Central Asia

Oct 22 , 2025

Policy Brief

Opportunity for Lasting Peace? Renewed Violence Tests Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

Introduction In October 2025, cross-border conflict surged between Afghanistan and Pakistan over allegations of terrorist safe havens in Afghanistan and drone strikes carried out by Pakistan, reaching the deadliest levels since the Taliban seized power of Afghanistan in August 2021. After several days of fighting, Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to

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South Asia

Oct 10 , 2025

Policy Brief

The SCO 2025: Progress and Reality Checks

Xi Jinping had a September full of diplomatic wins. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held its 25th summit in Tianjin, drawing the largest attendance in its history. Later, Beijing hosted a military parade commemorating the defeat of Japan in World War II, referred to in China as “The War of

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