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A Neighbor in Focus: Mexico’s Role in Emerging U.S. Defense & Homeland Security Strategies
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Explore Here
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How the War with Iran is Redrawing the Rules of Maritime Power
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Tren de Aragua’s Fall and Delcy Rodríguez’s Rise
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Promoting Evidence-based Policy and Good Governance

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP: Transnational Crime Project

Jul 1 , 2026

Research Report

A Neighbor in Focus: Mexico’s Role in Emerging U.S. Defense & Homeland Security Strategies

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Introduction This project evaluates how the 2025 National Security Strategy positions Mexico within U.S. homeland defense and regional security, measuring the alignment between strategic objectives, NORTHCOM/SOUTHCOM posture statements, and operational resourcing. We evaluate these positions to understand Mexico’s place in the current Trump administration’s hemispheric strategies. Mexico’s role in U.S.

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 29 , 2026

Policy Brief

How the War with Iran is Redrawing the Rules of Maritime Power

Following the intensification of the Israeli-US military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program in spring 2025, the region stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean has entered a new phase of strategic turbulence. Beyond missile strikes, air operations, and tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, the conflict is highlighting a deeper transformation

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas, OPI-TCP: Transnational Crime Project

Jun 15 , 2026

Op-Ed

Tren de Aragua’s Fall and Delcy Rodríguez’s Rise

On June 12, President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces had killed Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, better known as Niño Guerrero, the founder and top leader of Tren de Aragua, in a swift kinetic strike on Venezuelan soil. According to the White House, the operation was conducted in close coordination

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 10 , 2026

Op-Ed

Decapitation Strikes and the Problem of Strategic Prediction

Months after the U.S. agreed to a cease fire with Iran, America has struggled to achieve its core objectives. Iranian military capabilities were severely degraded during the fighting, but neither the U.S. nor Israel has been able to impose its will. Iranian intransigence seems to have surprised American policy makers.

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OPI Summer School 10

May 7 , 2026

Webinar

OPI Intensive Seminar Program on Global Security Threats 2026

Orion Policy Institute (OPI) hosted a day-long online intensive seminar program on Wednesday, June 3, 2026, between 9:45 am – 3 pm (EST) on 2026 Global Security Threats. A certificate will be provided to the attendees who participated fully in all of the seminar sessions! Please expect to receive your

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Defense & Security, Terrorism & Extremism, Africa, Europe & Central Asia

May 6 , 2026

Policy Brief

Mali’s Fracture Will be Felt in West Africa and Beyond

Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM is on the brink of taking over northern Mali and toppling the Malian junta, and while it is unlikely to directly seize power across Mali, Mali’s fracturing will have seismic consequences in West Africa and beyond. The group launched its most coordinated and significant offensive

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Crime & Justice, Americas

May 1 , 2026

Op-Ed

When Even the Rural Communities Fall Victim: Haiti’s Descent into Gang Rule Demands Immediate Action

Haiti’s security crisis is no longer confined to the streets of Port-au-Prince or the headlines of political instability. It has reached into places once untouched by the gang violence—rural homes, places of worship, and faith-based properties. With the strength to seize property and kill those connected to it, the new

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP: Transnational Crime Project

Apr 28 , 2026

Policy Brief

An Alternative Assessment of President Trump’s Strategy in Venezuela

Editor’s Note: This policy brief is Part V of an Orion Policy Institute (OPI) Transnational Crime Project (OPI-TCP) series. While unprecedented and unexpected, it increasingly appears that the United States’ capture of Nicolas Maduro in January 2026 was more than an isolated regional event. Instead, it was a broader strategic

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Latest Research

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Jan 17 , 2026

Policy Brief

Post-Quantum Cryptography: An Urgent Need for AI Infrastructure

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Post-quantum cryptography is typically framed as a problem in quantum computing. It is something to address once fault-tolerant machines arrive. So, this framing is still incomplete. Every scaled AI system today depends on encrypted data pipelines, protected model weights, and secure inference infrastructure. The cryptographic standards protecting that infrastructure are

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Defense & Security, Africa

Jan 13 , 2026

Policy Brief

Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland: Strategic Logic and Regional Implications

Rather than an isolated diplomatic gesture, Israel’s decision to formally recognise the Republic of Somaliland constitutes a deliberate strategic intervention in the Horn of Africa. By extending recognition to a de facto sovereign entity that is not officially recognised, Israel has challenged long-standing international norms governing statehood, territorial integrity, and

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Defense & Security, Indo – Pacific, South Asia

Jan 7 , 2026

Policy Brief

Why China May Be Emboldened by America’s 2025 National Security Strategy

China is rapidly increasing its economic and military strength and asserting itself more aggressively on the world stage. Until President Xi Jinping assumed power in 2012, China was careful to downplay its ambition and growing international power. Now, the country is a near-peer competitor of the United States military in

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Defense & Security, Americas

Dec 12 , 2025

Policy Brief

The Trump Corollary: Venezuela as the First Test of a Neo-Monroe Doctrine

Foreign policy analysts had long suspected that President Trump was reviving a Monroe Doctrine–style policy for Latin America. With the release of the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS), that idea now has a formal name: the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. This newly declared doctrine revives a two-century-old concept

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Defense & Security, Transnational Crime, Americas, Indo – Pacific

Dec 8 , 2025

Policy Brief

Operation Southern Spear and the Escalation Against Narcotraffickers

More than two months have passed since our last assessment on Airstrikes in the Caribbean, yet U.S. action against suspected Venezuelan narcotraffickers has accelerated, expanding in both scope and frequency. The situation has evolved into a sustained operation with far-reaching implications for U.S. policy and regional security. What began as

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Defense & Security, Europe & Central Asia

Nov 18 , 2025

Policy Brief

Rising Tensions: The U.S.–Russia Standoff and Its Consequences for NATO and Ukraine

Introduction President Donald Trump recently accused Russia of conducting underground nuclear tests, while President Vladimir Putin, responding to U.S. discussions about providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, warned that such a move would mark a “qualitatively new stage of escalation.”[1] These developments signal a renewed rise in U.S.-Russia tensions and highlight

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