Syria at a Turning Point: Power Shifts, Actors, and U.S. Policy

Post-Quantum Cryptography: An Urgent Need for AI Infrastructure

Will Cuba be the Next After Maduro?

Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland: Strategic Logic and Regional Implications

Imdat Oner: The Good, the Bad, or the Ugly – What is Next for Venezuela?

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Promoting Evidence-based Policy and Good Governance

Defense & Security, Terrorism & Extremism, Middle East

Jan 23 , 2026

Expert Panel

Syria at a Turning Point: Power Shifts, Actors, and U.S. Policy

Colin P. Clarke, Caroline Rose, Suleyman Ozeren

In this Expert Panel Series, three prominent subject-matter experts assess recent developments in Syria, including the ceasefire and integration agreement transferring control of Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor from the SDF to the Syrian government. We posed three questions to Colin Clarke, Caroline Rose, and Suleyman Ozeren to evaluate shifts in

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Jan 17 , 2026

Policy Brief

Post-Quantum Cryptography: An Urgent Need for AI Infrastructure

Suleyman Demirci, Sevde Nihan Demirci

Post-quantum cryptography is typically framed as a problem in quantum computing. It is something to address once fault-tolerant machines arrive. So, this framing is still incomplete. Every scaled AI system today depends on encrypted data pipelines, protected model weights, and secure inference infrastructure. The cryptographic standards protecting that infrastructure are

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Defense & Security, Americas

Jan 15 , 2026

Op-Ed

Will Cuba be the Next After Maduro?

Imdat Oner

President Donald Trump has started to frame U.S. policy in Latin America through a tougher reading of the Monroe Doctrine. Some observers call this the “Donroe Doctrine,” reflecting his view that the Western Hemisphere is a region where Washington should assert control and limit the influence of hostile governments. In

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Defense & Security, Africa

Jan 13 , 2026

Policy Brief

Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland: Strategic Logic and Regional Implications

Federico Donelli

Rather than an isolated diplomatic gesture, Israel’s decision to formally recognise the Republic of Somaliland constitutes a deliberate strategic intervention in the Horn of Africa. By extending recognition to a de facto sovereign entity that is not officially recognised, Israel has challenged long-standing international norms governing statehood, territorial integrity, and

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Defense & Security, Americas

Jan 8 , 2026

Podcast

Imdat Oner: The Good, the Bad, or the Ugly – What is Next for Venezuela?

Imdat Oner

In this Orion Talks episode, hosted by Suat Cubukcu, Dr. Imdat Oner joins the conversation to unpack Venezuela’s sudden political turning point following the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his transfer to the United States. Dr. Oner examines the immediate fallout in Caracas, the rise of interim president Delcy Rodríguez,

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Defense & Security, Indo – Pacific, South Asia

Jan 7 , 2026

Policy Brief

Why China May Be Emboldened by America’s 2025 National Security Strategy

Colin Pascal

China is rapidly increasing its economic and military strength and asserting itself more aggressively on the world stage. Until President Xi Jinping assumed power in 2012, China was careful to downplay its ambition and growing international power. Now, the country is a near-peer competitor of the United States military in

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Terrorism & Extremism, Americas

Dec 22 , 2025

Op-Ed

Counternarcotics as Counterterrorism: Colombia’s Clan del Golfo

Juan Rojas

The Trump administration’s recent designation of the Clan del Golfo Colombian armed group as a foreign terrorist organization marks a significant escalation in the Trump administration’s counter-narcotics policy in Latin America. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on December 16th that the Colombian group would join a growing list of

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Terrorism & Extremism, Indo – Pacific

Dec 18 , 2025

Op-Ed

The Price of Complacency: Why Australia Must Rethink Prevention After Bondi Beach

Timothy Kappler

On Sunday, December 14, 2025, at approximately 6:45 pm AEDT near Archer Park of Bondi Beach, Australia, two gunmen opened fire on a crowd of approximately one thousand people. Brutal and methodical, the event was a “targeted attack on Jewish Australians… (inspired by) Islamic State ideology” as stated by Prime

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Latest Research

Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Oct 7 , 2025

Research

Cyber Espionage and U.S. Policy Responses

Suleyman Ozeren, Kate Shymkiv

Introduction Between September 1986 and June 1987, a group of German hackers conducted the first recorded act of cyber espionage, breaching US civil and military organizations and selling stolen data to the Soviet KGB. Since then, cyber espionage has become an evolving threat and state-sponsored campaigns targeting sensitive government and

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Africa

Sep 5 , 2025

Policy Brief

Betting on Addis Ababa: Meloni’s African Strategy Between Realpolitik and Risk

Federico Donelli

At a time when Ethiopia is experiencing domestic instability, Rome is doubling down on its support for Abiy Ahmed — a bold move that combines opportunity with significant political risk. The Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s visit on 27–28 July 2025 — which marks her second trip in two years

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Terrorism & Extremism, Americas

Sep 2 , 2025

Research Report

MS-13 Unmasked: Anatomy of a Decentralized Network

Suleyman Ozeren, Suat Cubukcu, Gabriel D. Klinger, Jacob Pritchard

Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), a designated foreign terrorist organization (FTO) and transnational criminal organization (TCO) by the U.S. federal government, has its origins in Los Angeles, California, in the 1980s. At that time, El Salvador was engulfed in a civil war between the government and leftist guerrilla forces, most notably the

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Democracy & Human Rights, Africa

Aug 19 , 2025

Research

Women and the Path for Peace in Africa: Ethiopia

Ayse Ergene, Virginia Buffum

Ethiopia today is characterized by growing fragmentation and eruptions of violence since the catastrophic Tigray war. The civil war, which lasted from 2020 to 2022, has claimed more than 500,000 soldiers and 360,000 civilians, making it one of the deadliest conflicts since the end of the Cold War. Beyond the

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Democracy & Human Rights, Americas

Aug 7 , 2025

Policy Brief

The Security and Humanitarian Crisis in Haiti and Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

Jackie Ducharme

Haiti is on the verge of a total institutional collapse, with only 10% of the capital in control of the Haitian government—a government entrenched with corruption.[i] Instead, Haitian gangs are nearing total control of the capital and Haitian authorities can no longer combat the escalating violence.[ii] The current crisis goes

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Terrorism & Extremism, Middle East

Jul 26 , 2025

Research Report

The Houthi Drone Supply Chain

Suat Cubukcu, Evan Jordan

The Houthi movement, designated by the U.S. as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), has emerged as the most prolific violent non-state actor employing Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). According to GTTAC data, the group has conducted 388 drone attacks from 2018 to 2024, targeting a wide array of actors, including the

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