The terrorism threat landscape has changed substantially since September 11, 2001. Over the last quarter of a century, counterterrorism efforts disrupted terrorist networks and decapitate several senior leaders, including the founder of al Qaeda, Usama bin Laden, and his successors, as well as ISIS leadership. Despite al Qaeda being pushed
Introduction Artificial intelligence (AI) is seeping steadily into strategic nuclear affairs. In 2018, a RAND Corporation study reasoned that by 2040, an AI could advise humans on matters of escalation without connecting directly to nuclear launchers, based on the progress AI is making in “increasingly complex and poorly specified tasks.”[1]
The war in Ukraine is exposing a fundamental change in modern conflict. Low Earth orbit (LEO) constellations are no longer simply a supporting layer that provides communications, imagery, navigation, and data to forces fighting below. It is becoming part of the battlespace itself, not necessarily because satellites are being destroyed
As both the U.S. and Iran have climbed the escalation ladder, the Strait of Hormuz — and with it, international maritime trade and energy markets — has been subjected to a consequential chokehold. As the U.S. conducts strikes on major infrastructural sites, weapons depots, and Iranian political leadership, one of
Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, the United States spent about forty days in major combat operations against the Republic of Iran, followed by just over ninety days of a fragile ceasefire framework and attempted negotiations, punctuated by intermittent kinetic operations. As Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the
In this Orion Talks episode, hosted by Suat Cubukcu, John Sullivan, Nathan Jones, and Daniel Weisz Argomedo explore how urban warfare is reshaping modern conflict. Drawing on their book Urban Operations: War, Crime, and Conflict, they examine the increasingly blurred lines between conventional warfare, organized crime, terrorism, and criminal insurgencies
Introduction This project evaluates how the 2025 National Security Strategy positions Mexico within U.S. homeland defense and regional security, measuring the alignment between strategic objectives, NORTHCOM/SOUTHCOM posture statements, and operational resourcing. We evaluate these positions to understand Mexico’s place in the current Trump administration’s hemispheric strategies. Mexico’s role in U.S.
Following the intensification of the Israeli-US military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program in spring 2025, the region stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean has entered a new phase of strategic turbulence. Beyond missile strikes, air operations, and tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, the conflict is highlighting a deeper transformation
Months after the U.S. agreed to a cease fire with Iran, America has struggled to achieve its core objectives. Iranian military capabilities were severely degraded during the fighting, but neither the U.S. nor Israel has been able to impose its will. Iranian intransigence seems to have surprised American policy makers.
Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM is on the brink of taking over northern Mali and toppling the Malian junta, and while it is unlikely to directly seize power across Mali, Mali’s fracturing will have seismic consequences in West Africa and beyond. The group launched its most coordinated and significant offensive
Editor’s Note: This policy brief is Part V of an Orion Policy Institute (OPI) Transnational Crime Project (OPI-TCP) series. While unprecedented and unexpected, it increasingly appears that the United States’ capture of Nicolas Maduro in January 2026 was more than an isolated regional event. Instead, it was a broader strategic
Japan and South Korea share a difficult history that complicates their bilateral relationship. This is a problem since an effective Japan-Korea alliance would be a bulwark against China’s regional ambitions and allow the U.S. to redirect resources to other parts of the world. The long-discussed U.S. pivot to Asia, announced
