Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM is on the brink of taking over northern Mali and toppling the Malian junta, and while it is unlikely to directly seize power across Mali, Mali’s fracturing will have seismic consequences in West Africa and beyond. The group launched its most coordinated and significant offensive
Editor’s Note: This policy brief is Part V of an Orion Policy Institute (OPI) Transnational Crime Project (OPI-TCP) series. While unprecedented and unexpected, it increasingly appears that the United States’ capture of Nicolas Maduro in January 2026 was more than an isolated regional event. Instead, it was a broader strategic
Japan and South Korea share a difficult history that complicates their bilateral relationship. This is a problem since an effective Japan-Korea alliance would be a bulwark against China’s regional ambitions and allow the U.S. to redirect resources to other parts of the world. The long-discussed U.S. pivot to Asia, announced
Operation Epic Fury is the 2026 U.S.-led military campaign against Iran. The operation marks one of the most significant escalations in Middle Eastern conflict in the post–Cold War era and stretches beyond the issues between Iran versus the U.S.-Israel sides. As of 2026, the most powerful countries are the United
China has worked to build a diplomatic position in the Middle East, cultivating an image as a non-interventionist power that can be everyone’s friend and no one’s enemy. However, when the drums of war began to sound over the Strait of Hormuz, China found itself exposed to a conflict it
In this episode of Orion Talks, hosted by Suat Cubukcu, we are joined by Dr. Kerry Chávez to explore how drones are reshaping modern warfare and homeland security. As commercial drone technology becomes more accessible, the barriers to air power are rapidly eroding, enabling non-state actors and even lone individuals
Terrorism and counterterrorism have been significant concerns after terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, in the United States. The concerns have valid reasons. Currently, the U.S. State Department lists approximately 70 Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) as of early 2026 [1]. In addition to domestic violent extremist groups, the FTOs pose
The Iran war puts Turkey in a peculiar position, posing several challenges. Since the beginning of the US and Israel’s military confrontation with Iran, Turkey has adopted cautious neutrality, which aimed to avoid the escalation of tensions with either side of the conflict. However, the question is how sustainable Ankara’s
By Suat Cubukcu, Editor With contributions from Austin Doctor, Bill Edwards, Scott Parker, and DJ Smith (listed alphabetically) The rapid proliferation of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) has created both opportunity and vulnerability. While drones increasingly support commerce, public safety, agriculture, and infrastructure inspection, their accessibility also lowers the barrier
The capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026 marks a strategic inflection point for the United States and the first real stress test of the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) in the Western Hemisphere. More than the apprehension of a leader, Maduro’s removal forces Washington to reconcile competing strategic
In this episode, host Marta Furlan talks with Juan Luis Manfredi Sánchez, reflecting on the new world order that is taking shape under President Donald Trump. Manfredi Sánchez talks about the end of the liberal order and a return to “areas of influence”. He goes on to note that the
In this Expert Panel Series, three prominent subject-matter experts assess recent developments in Syria, including the ceasefire and integration agreement transferring control of Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor from the SDF to the Syrian government. We posed three questions to Colin Clarke, Caroline Rose, and Suleyman Ozeren to evaluate shifts in
