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A Neighbor in Focus: Mexico’s Role in Emerging U.S. Defense & Homeland Security Strategies
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Explore Here
Explore Here
How the War with Iran is Redrawing the Rules of Maritime Power
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Tren de Aragua’s Fall and Delcy Rodríguez’s Rise
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Promoting Evidence-based Policy and Good Governance

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP: Transnational Crime Project

Jul 1 , 2026

Research Report

A Neighbor in Focus: Mexico’s Role in Emerging U.S. Defense & Homeland Security Strategies

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Introduction This project evaluates how the 2025 National Security Strategy positions Mexico within U.S. homeland defense and regional security, measuring the alignment between strategic objectives, NORTHCOM/SOUTHCOM posture statements, and operational resourcing. We evaluate these positions to understand Mexico’s place in the current Trump administration’s hemispheric strategies. Mexico’s role in U.S.

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 29 , 2026

Policy Brief

How the War with Iran is Redrawing the Rules of Maritime Power

Following the intensification of the Israeli-US military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program in spring 2025, the region stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean has entered a new phase of strategic turbulence. Beyond missile strikes, air operations, and tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, the conflict is highlighting a deeper transformation

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas, OPI-TCP: Transnational Crime Project

Jun 15 , 2026

Op-Ed

Tren de Aragua’s Fall and Delcy Rodríguez’s Rise

On June 12, President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces had killed Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, better known as Niño Guerrero, the founder and top leader of Tren de Aragua, in a swift kinetic strike on Venezuelan soil. According to the White House, the operation was conducted in close coordination

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 10 , 2026

Op-Ed

Decapitation Strikes and the Problem of Strategic Prediction

Months after the U.S. agreed to a cease fire with Iran, America has struggled to achieve its core objectives. Iranian military capabilities were severely degraded during the fighting, but neither the U.S. nor Israel has been able to impose its will. Iranian intransigence seems to have surprised American policy makers.

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OPI Summer School 10

May 7 , 2026

Webinar

OPI Intensive Seminar Program on Global Security Threats 2026

Orion Policy Institute (OPI) hosted a day-long online intensive seminar program on Wednesday, June 3, 2026, between 9:45 am – 3 pm (EST) on 2026 Global Security Threats. A certificate will be provided to the attendees who participated fully in all of the seminar sessions! Please expect to receive your

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Defense & Security, Terrorism & Extremism, Africa, Europe & Central Asia

May 6 , 2026

Policy Brief

Mali’s Fracture Will be Felt in West Africa and Beyond

Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM is on the brink of taking over northern Mali and toppling the Malian junta, and while it is unlikely to directly seize power across Mali, Mali’s fracturing will have seismic consequences in West Africa and beyond. The group launched its most coordinated and significant offensive

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Crime & Justice, Americas

May 1 , 2026

Op-Ed

When Even the Rural Communities Fall Victim: Haiti’s Descent into Gang Rule Demands Immediate Action

Haiti’s security crisis is no longer confined to the streets of Port-au-Prince or the headlines of political instability. It has reached into places once untouched by the gang violence—rural homes, places of worship, and faith-based properties. With the strength to seize property and kill those connected to it, the new

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP: Transnational Crime Project

Apr 28 , 2026

Policy Brief

An Alternative Assessment of President Trump’s Strategy in Venezuela

Editor’s Note: This policy brief is Part V of an Orion Policy Institute (OPI) Transnational Crime Project (OPI-TCP) series. While unprecedented and unexpected, it increasingly appears that the United States’ capture of Nicolas Maduro in January 2026 was more than an isolated regional event. Instead, it was a broader strategic

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Latest Research

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Oct 7 , 2025

Research

Cyber Espionage and U.S. Policy Responses

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Introduction Between September 1986 and June 1987, a group of German hackers conducted the first recorded act of cyber espionage, breaching US civil and military organizations and selling stolen data to the Soviet KGB. Since then, cyber espionage has become an evolving threat and state-sponsored campaigns targeting sensitive government and

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Africa, Europe & Central Asia

Sep 5 , 2025

Policy Brief

Betting on Addis Ababa: Meloni’s African Strategy Between Realpolitik and Risk

At a time when Ethiopia is experiencing domestic instability, Rome is doubling down on its support for Abiy Ahmed — a bold move that combines opportunity with significant political risk. The Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s visit on 27–28 July 2025 — which marks her second trip in two years

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Terrorism & Extremism, Americas, OPI-TCP: Transnational Crime Project

Sep 2 , 2025

Research Report

MS-13 Unmasked: Anatomy of a Decentralized Network

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Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), a designated foreign terrorist organization (FTO) and transnational criminal organization (TCO) by the U.S. federal government, has its origins in Los Angeles, California, in the 1980s. At that time, El Salvador was engulfed in a civil war between the government and leftist guerrilla forces, most notably the

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Democracy & Human Rights, Africa

Aug 19 , 2025

Research

Women and the Path for Peace in Africa: Ethiopia

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Ethiopia today is characterized by growing fragmentation and eruptions of violence since the catastrophic Tigray war. The civil war, which lasted from 2020 to 2022, has claimed more than 500,000 soldiers and 360,000 civilians, making it one of the deadliest conflicts since the end of the Cold War. Beyond the

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Democracy & Human Rights, Americas

Aug 7 , 2025

Policy Brief

The Security and Humanitarian Crisis in Haiti and Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

Haiti is on the verge of a total institutional collapse, with only 10% of the capital in control of the Haitian government—a government entrenched with corruption.[i] Instead, Haitian gangs are nearing total control of the capital and Haitian authorities can no longer combat the escalating violence.[ii] The current crisis goes

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Terrorism & Extremism, Middle East

Jul 26 , 2025

Research Report

The Houthi Drone Supply Chain

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The Houthi movement, designated by the U.S. as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), has emerged as the most prolific violent non-state actor employing Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). According to GTTAC data, the group has conducted 388 drone attacks from 2018 to 2024, targeting a wide array of actors, including the

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