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A Need for Informed Policy Against Critical Cyberattacks: The ROCCA Project
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The Impact of Iranian Military Doctrine on the Iran War
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Urban Warfare: Cities, Crime, and the Future of Conflict
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Promoting Evidence-based Policy and Good Governance

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jul 23 , 2026

Policy Brief

The Impact of Iranian Military Doctrine on the Iran War

Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, the United States spent about forty days in major combat operations against the Republic of Iran, followed by just over ninety days of a fragile ceasefire framework and attempted negotiations, punctuated by intermittent kinetic operations. As Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the

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Defense & Security

Jul 18 , 2026

Podcast

Urban Warfare: Cities, Crime, and the Future of Conflict

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In this Orion Talks episode, hosted by Suat Cubukcu, John Sullivan, Nathan Jones, and Daniel Weisz Argomedo explore how urban warfare is reshaping modern conflict. Drawing on their book Urban Operations: War, Crime, and Conflict, they examine the increasingly blurred lines between conventional warfare, organized crime, terrorism, and criminal insurgencies

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Jul 13 , 2026

Op-Ed

A Need for Informed Policy Against Critical Cyberattacks: The ROCCA Project

According to data from the Orion Policy Institute’s newly launched Records of Critical Cyber Attacks (ROCCA) Project, China and Russia account for 458 originated cyberattacks, or 48% of the 954 incidents recorded between 2005 and 2025. The United States is the most targeted country, and these attacks have increased sharply

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Jul 9 , 2026

Policy Brief

Washington’s AI Ban and Reversal Exposed the Bigger Problem: It Can’t Measure Cyber Risk in the Real World

Anthropic’s Mythos/Fable model ban showed Washington acting on a lab signal it could measure while flying blind on the one it can’t. On June 12, the Commerce Department ordered Anthropic to cut off foreign-national access to its two most capable models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5. The reason, according to

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP

Jul 1 , 2026

Research Report

A Neighbor in Focus: Mexico’s Role in Emerging U.S. Defense & Homeland Security Strategies

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Introduction This project evaluates how the 2025 National Security Strategy positions Mexico within U.S. homeland defense and regional security, measuring the alignment between strategic objectives, NORTHCOM/SOUTHCOM posture statements, and operational resourcing. We evaluate these positions to understand Mexico’s place in the current Trump administration’s hemispheric strategies. Mexico’s role in U.S.

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 29 , 2026

Policy Brief

How the War with Iran is Redrawing the Rules of Maritime Power

Following the intensification of the Israeli-US military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program in spring 2025, the region stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean has entered a new phase of strategic turbulence. Beyond missile strikes, air operations, and tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, the conflict is highlighting a deeper transformation

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas, OPI-TCP

Jun 15 , 2026

Op-Ed

Tren de Aragua’s Fall and Delcy Rodríguez’s Rise

On June 12, President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces had killed Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, better known as Niño Guerrero, the founder and top leader of Tren de Aragua, in a swift kinetic strike on Venezuelan soil. According to the White House, the operation was conducted in close coordination

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 10 , 2026

Op-Ed

Decapitation Strikes and the Problem of Strategic Prediction

Months after the U.S. agreed to a cease fire with Iran, America has struggled to achieve its core objectives. Iranian military capabilities were severely degraded during the fighting, but neither the U.S. nor Israel has been able to impose its will. Iranian intransigence seems to have surprised American policy makers.

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Latest Research

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Defense & Security, Europe & Central Asia

Oct 22 , 2025

Policy Brief

Opportunity for Lasting Peace? Renewed Violence Tests Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

Introduction In October 2025, cross-border conflict surged between Afghanistan and Pakistan over allegations of terrorist safe havens in Afghanistan and drone strikes carried out by Pakistan, reaching the deadliest levels since the Taliban seized power of Afghanistan in August 2021. After several days of fighting, Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to

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South Asia

Oct 10 , 2025

Policy Brief

The SCO 2025: Progress and Reality Checks

Xi Jinping had a September full of diplomatic wins. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held its 25th summit in Tianjin, drawing the largest attendance in its history. Later, Beijing hosted a military parade commemorating the defeat of Japan in World War II, referred to in China as “The War of

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Oct 7 , 2025

Research

Cyber Espionage and U.S. Policy Responses

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Introduction Between September 1986 and June 1987, a group of German hackers conducted the first recorded act of cyber espionage, breaching US civil and military organizations and selling stolen data to the Soviet KGB. Since then, cyber espionage has become an evolving threat and state-sponsored campaigns targeting sensitive government and

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Africa, Europe & Central Asia

Sep 5 , 2025

Policy Brief

Betting on Addis Ababa: Meloni’s African Strategy Between Realpolitik and Risk

At a time when Ethiopia is experiencing domestic instability, Rome is doubling down on its support for Abiy Ahmed — a bold move that combines opportunity with significant political risk. The Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s visit on 27–28 July 2025 — which marks her second trip in two years

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Terrorism & Extremism, Americas, OPI-TCP

Sep 2 , 2025

Research Report

MS-13 Unmasked: Anatomy of a Decentralized Network

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Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), a designated foreign terrorist organization (FTO) and transnational criminal organization (TCO) by the U.S. federal government, has its origins in Los Angeles, California, in the 1980s. At that time, El Salvador was engulfed in a civil war between the government and leftist guerrilla forces, most notably the

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Democracy & Human Rights, Africa

Aug 19 , 2025

Research

Women and the Path for Peace in Africa: Ethiopia

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Ethiopia today is characterized by growing fragmentation and eruptions of violence since the catastrophic Tigray war. The civil war, which lasted from 2020 to 2022, has claimed more than 500,000 soldiers and 360,000 civilians, making it one of the deadliest conflicts since the end of the Cold War. Beyond the

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