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Tren de Aragua’s Fall and Delcy Rodríguez’s Rise
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Decapitation Strikes and the Problem of Strategic Prediction
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Mali’s Fracture Will be Felt in West Africa and Beyond
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Promoting Evidence-based Policy and Good Governance

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas, OPI-TCP: Transnational Crime Project

Jun 15 , 2026

Op-Ed

Tren de Aragua’s Fall and Delcy Rodríguez’s Rise

On June 12, President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces had killed Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, better known as Niño Guerrero, the founder and top leader of Tren de Aragua, in a swift kinetic strike on Venezuelan soil. According to the White House, the operation was conducted in close coordination

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 10 , 2026

Op-Ed

Decapitation Strikes and the Problem of Strategic Prediction

Months after the U.S. agreed to a cease fire with Iran, America has struggled to achieve its core objectives. Iranian military capabilities were severely degraded during the fighting, but neither the U.S. nor Israel has been able to impose its will. Iranian intransigence seems to have surprised American policy makers.

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OPI Summer School 10

May 7 , 2026

Webinar

OPI Intensive Seminar Program on Global Security Threats 2026

Orion Policy Institute (OPI) hosted a day-long online intensive seminar program on Wednesday, June 3, 2026, between 9:45 am – 3 pm (EST) on 2026 Global Security Threats. A certificate will be provided to the attendees who participated fully in all of the seminar sessions! Please expect to receive your

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Defense & Security, Terrorism & Extremism, Africa, Europe & Central Asia

May 6 , 2026

Policy Brief

Mali’s Fracture Will be Felt in West Africa and Beyond

Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM is on the brink of taking over northern Mali and toppling the Malian junta, and while it is unlikely to directly seize power across Mali, Mali’s fracturing will have seismic consequences in West Africa and beyond. The group launched its most coordinated and significant offensive

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Crime & Justice, Americas

May 1 , 2026

Op-Ed

When Even the Rural Communities Fall Victim: Haiti’s Descent into Gang Rule Demands Immediate Action

Haiti’s security crisis is no longer confined to the streets of Port-au-Prince or the headlines of political instability. It has reached into places once untouched by the gang violence—rural homes, places of worship, and faith-based properties. With the strength to seize property and kill those connected to it, the new

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP: Transnational Crime Project

Apr 28 , 2026

Policy Brief

An Alternative Assessment of President Trump’s Strategy in Venezuela

Editor’s Note: This policy brief is Part V of an Orion Policy Institute (OPI) Transnational Crime Project (OPI-TCP) series. While unprecedented and unexpected, it increasingly appears that the United States’ capture of Nicolas Maduro in January 2026 was more than an isolated regional event. Instead, it was a broader strategic

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies, Terrorism & Extremism

Apr 27 , 2026

Podcast

Mauro Lubrano: A Deep Dive into Anti-technology Extremism

This episode of Orion Talks, hosted by Marta Furlan, features Dr. Mauro Lubrano examining the rise of anti-technology extremism. He begins by distinguishing it from anti-technology activism, emphasizing that conflating the two risks discrediting legitimate concerns and may even contribute to further radicalization. The discussion situates recent attacks on tech

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Defense & Security, Indo – Pacific, South Asia

Apr 23 , 2026

Op-Ed

An Unwinnable Claim, A Strategic Opportunity: Japan, Dokdo, and the China Challenge

Japan and South Korea share a difficult history that complicates their bilateral relationship. This is a problem since an effective Japan-Korea alliance would be a bulwark against China’s regional ambitions and allow the U.S. to redirect resources to other parts of the world. The long-discussed U.S. pivot to Asia, announced

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Latest Research

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Defense & Security, South Asia

Oct 31 , 2025

Policy Brief

ASEAN Summit 2025: Navigating Great-Power Rivalry in Kuala Lumpur

From October 25 to 28, the ASEAN 47th Summit in Kuala Lumpur became the world’s most important diplomatic scenario. The summit gathered thirty heads of state and government, including U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. The gathering, thus, has been crucial not only for the future of

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Americas

Oct 24 , 2025

Research

Funding Gaps and Service Cuts: Reimagining Public Transit for an Equitable Future

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Executive Summary Many major American metropolitan public transportation organizations are confronting critical funding shortfalls in the coming years, which they warn will force them to implement drastic service reductions and fare increases without further investment. Among other benefits, public transportation is a vital resource for vulnerable and disadvantaged communities, who

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pakistan afghanistan

Defense & Security, Europe & Central Asia

Oct 22 , 2025

Policy Brief

Opportunity for Lasting Peace? Renewed Violence Tests Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

Introduction In October 2025, cross-border conflict surged between Afghanistan and Pakistan over allegations of terrorist safe havens in Afghanistan and drone strikes carried out by Pakistan, reaching the deadliest levels since the Taliban seized power of Afghanistan in August 2021. After several days of fighting, Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to

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South Asia

Oct 10 , 2025

Policy Brief

The SCO 2025: Progress and Reality Checks

Xi Jinping had a September full of diplomatic wins. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held its 25th summit in Tianjin, drawing the largest attendance in its history. Later, Beijing hosted a military parade commemorating the defeat of Japan in World War II, referred to in China as “The War of

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Oct 7 , 2025

Research

Cyber Espionage and U.S. Policy Responses

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Introduction Between September 1986 and June 1987, a group of German hackers conducted the first recorded act of cyber espionage, breaching US civil and military organizations and selling stolen data to the Soviet KGB. Since then, cyber espionage has become an evolving threat and state-sponsored campaigns targeting sensitive government and

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Africa, Europe & Central Asia

Sep 5 , 2025

Policy Brief

Betting on Addis Ababa: Meloni’s African Strategy Between Realpolitik and Risk

At a time when Ethiopia is experiencing domestic instability, Rome is doubling down on its support for Abiy Ahmed — a bold move that combines opportunity with significant political risk. The Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s visit on 27–28 July 2025 — which marks her second trip in two years

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