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Escalating Conflict With Iran-Backed Houthis And The Future Of Mecca Defense Pact
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Improving DOJ’s AI Use Case Inventory: Four Targeted Reforms
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Bill Edwards: The Perimeter Has Changed
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Natural Gas-Reliant AI Data Centers are Vulnerable to Chokepoint Coercion
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How a Gulf Rift Opened a Second Front for Iran
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Promoting Evidence-based Policy and Good Governance

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NextGen

Oct 21 , 2026

Projects

Turkey’s Evolving Strategy in the Horn of Africa among Middle East Power Competition

The Horn of Africa (HOA) and Red Sea region, situated along one of the world’s most critical maritime routes and chokepoints, holds an outsized geopolitical significance, as the Iran War has demonstrated the precarity of trade-route security and the importance of stable littoral states in keeping routes open. Long before

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Cybersecurity, Defense & Security, Technology

Oct 15 , 2026

Op-Ed

Improving DOJ’s AI Use Case Inventory: Four Targeted Reforms

During a panel at the DoDIIS Worldwide Conference in August 2026, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) chief AI officer Katie Noyes described 139 approved artificial intelligence (AI) use cases. The Department of Justice’s (DOJ) public 2025 inventory, released in January 2026, listed 50 FBI use cases. An FBI spokesperson later

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Cybersecurity, Defense & Security, Technology

Oct 13 , 2026

Podcast

Bill Edwards: The Perimeter Has Changed

In this OrionTalks episode, hosted by Suat Cubukcu, COL (R) Bill Edwards discusses his new book, The Perimeter Has Changed, and how drones, emerging technologies, and evolving threats are reshaping physical security. An Iraq War veteran and experienced drone and counter-drone professional, Edwards is a recognized thought leader in the

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Defense & Security, Europe & Central Asia, Middle East

Oct 12 , 2026

Policy Brief

Escalating Conflict With Iran-Backed Houthis And The Future Of Mecca Defense Pact

On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” (MJDA), a trilateral defense pact that brought Turkey into a Saudi-Pakistan collective-defense deal. While the agreement considers “any armed attack against any one of the three States shall be regarded as an attack against them

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Technology, Americas

Oct 5 , 2026

Op-Ed

Natural Gas-Reliant AI Data Centers are Vulnerable to Chokepoint Coercion

U.S. prosperity is increasingly interlinked with AI, accounting for nearly half of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Sustaining America’s hard-won competitive AI edge hinges on uninterrupted access to natural gas, which now comprises approximately 40 percent of the power mix in U.S. AI data centers. To date, AI data centers

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Oct 1 , 2026

Op-Ed

How a Gulf Rift Opened a Second Front for Iran

As of mid-September, the Houthis, after capturing Mokha, the Hanish Islands, and Mayun, hold physical control over the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint through which a large share of Red Sea shipping must pass. Saudi Arabia has begun mobilizing a direct military response to reverse those gains, but even

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OPI-ROCCA

Sep 25 , 2026

Projects

APT Profile: Salt Typhoon

The ROCCA project examines significant cyber incidents and the actors behind them to identify patterns in cyber threats, their targets, and their broader security implications. These APT profiles provide background on the groups responsible for major incidents documented in the ROCCA dataset. Country of Origin China Threat Actor Type State-sponsored

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Sep 23 , 2026

Policy Brief

The Siege of the Republic of Iran

Following months of U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran and repeated diplomatic efforts and ceasefires, the U.S. administration has shifted to a strategy of increased economic pressure against Iran under Operation Economic Outcast. The White House has framed the current strategic shift as primarily an economic campaign (with a dual

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Latest Research

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Defense & Security, Americas

Dec 12 , 2025

Policy Brief

The Trump Corollary: Venezuela as the First Test of a Neo-Monroe Doctrine

Foreign policy analysts had long suspected that President Trump was reviving a Monroe Doctrine–style policy for Latin America. With the release of the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS), that idea now has a formal name: the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. This newly declared doctrine revives a two-century-old concept

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Defense & Security, Transnational Crime, Americas, Indo – Pacific

Dec 8 , 2025

Policy Brief

Operation Southern Spear and the Escalation Against Narcotraffickers

More than two months have passed since our last assessment on Airstrikes in the Caribbean, yet U.S. action against suspected Venezuelan narcotraffickers has accelerated, expanding in both scope and frequency. The situation has evolved into a sustained operation with far-reaching implications for U.S. policy and regional security. What began as

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Defense & Security, Europe & Central Asia

Nov 18 , 2025

Policy Brief

Rising Tensions: The U.S.–Russia Standoff and Its Consequences for NATO and Ukraine

Introduction President Donald Trump recently accused Russia of conducting underground nuclear tests, while President Vladimir Putin, responding to U.S. discussions about providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, warned that such a move would mark a “qualitatively new stage of escalation.”[1] These developments signal a renewed rise in U.S.-Russia tensions and highlight

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Democracy & Human Rights, Terrorism & Extremism, Africa

Nov 11 , 2025

Policy Brief

Sudan: Theatre Where Many, Competing Interests Meet and Clash

After 18 months of siege marked by starvation, targeted killings, and sexual violence, El Fasher – the capital of North Darfur – fell to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). As of the time of this writing, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) control most of the north, east, and central regions,

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Defense & Security, Africa

Nov 6 , 2025

Policy Brief

Bridging Land and Sea: Rethinking Security in the Red Sea Arena

The Red Sea has shifted from a central shipping lane to a strategically important area linking Africa, Arabia, the Indo-Pacific, and global powers. The distinction between land and sea is fading — as are old assumptions about regional order. From Peripheral Sea to Global Chokepoint Long seen as a peripheral

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Defense & Security, South Asia

Oct 31 , 2025

Policy Brief

ASEAN Summit 2025: Navigating Great-Power Rivalry in Kuala Lumpur

From October 25 to 28, the ASEAN 47th Summit in Kuala Lumpur became the world’s most important diplomatic scenario. The summit gathered thirty heads of state and government, including U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. The gathering, thus, has been crucial not only for the future of

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