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Escalating Conflict With Iran-Backed Houthis And The Future Of Mecca Defense Pact
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Improving DOJ’s AI Use Case Inventory: Four Targeted Reforms
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Bill Edwards: The Perimeter Has Changed
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Natural Gas-Reliant AI Data Centers are Vulnerable to Chokepoint Coercion
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How a Gulf Rift Opened a Second Front for Iran
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Promoting Evidence-based Policy and Good Governance

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NextGen

Oct 21 , 2026

Projects

Turkey’s Evolving Strategy in the Horn of Africa among Middle East Power Competition

The Horn of Africa (HOA) and Red Sea region, situated along one of the world’s most critical maritime routes and chokepoints, holds an outsized geopolitical significance, as the Iran War has demonstrated the precarity of trade-route security and the importance of stable littoral states in keeping routes open. Long before

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Cybersecurity, Defense & Security, Technology

Oct 15 , 2026

Op-Ed

Improving DOJ’s AI Use Case Inventory: Four Targeted Reforms

During a panel at the DoDIIS Worldwide Conference in August 2026, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) chief AI officer Katie Noyes described 139 approved artificial intelligence (AI) use cases. The Department of Justice’s (DOJ) public 2025 inventory, released in January 2026, listed 50 FBI use cases. An FBI spokesperson later

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Cybersecurity, Defense & Security, Technology

Oct 13 , 2026

Podcast

Bill Edwards: The Perimeter Has Changed

In this OrionTalks episode, hosted by Suat Cubukcu, COL (R) Bill Edwards discusses his new book, The Perimeter Has Changed, and how drones, emerging technologies, and evolving threats are reshaping physical security. An Iraq War veteran and experienced drone and counter-drone professional, Edwards is a recognized thought leader in the

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Defense & Security, Europe & Central Asia, Middle East

Oct 12 , 2026

Policy Brief

Escalating Conflict With Iran-Backed Houthis And The Future Of Mecca Defense Pact

On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” (MJDA), a trilateral defense pact that brought Turkey into a Saudi-Pakistan collective-defense deal. While the agreement considers “any armed attack against any one of the three States shall be regarded as an attack against them

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Technology, Americas

Oct 5 , 2026

Op-Ed

Natural Gas-Reliant AI Data Centers are Vulnerable to Chokepoint Coercion

U.S. prosperity is increasingly interlinked with AI, accounting for nearly half of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Sustaining America’s hard-won competitive AI edge hinges on uninterrupted access to natural gas, which now comprises approximately 40 percent of the power mix in U.S. AI data centers. To date, AI data centers

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Oct 1 , 2026

Op-Ed

How a Gulf Rift Opened a Second Front for Iran

As of mid-September, the Houthis, after capturing Mokha, the Hanish Islands, and Mayun, hold physical control over the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb, the chokepoint through which a large share of Red Sea shipping must pass. Saudi Arabia has begun mobilizing a direct military response to reverse those gains, but even

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OPI-ROCCA

Sep 25 , 2026

Projects

APT Profile: Salt Typhoon

The ROCCA project examines significant cyber incidents and the actors behind them to identify patterns in cyber threats, their targets, and their broader security implications. These APT profiles provide background on the groups responsible for major incidents documented in the ROCCA dataset. Country of Origin China Threat Actor Type State-sponsored

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Sep 23 , 2026

Policy Brief

The Siege of the Republic of Iran

Following months of U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran and repeated diplomatic efforts and ceasefires, the U.S. administration has shifted to a strategy of increased economic pressure against Iran under Operation Economic Outcast. The White House has framed the current strategic shift as primarily an economic campaign (with a dual

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Latest Research

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Africa, Americas, OPI-TCP

Aug 5 , 2026

Policy Brief

Mexican Cartels and South Africa’s Shift to Meth Production

The Trump administration has made confronting drug cartels a central national security priority, designating the largest Mexican networks as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and dedicating significant resources toward securing the Americas. But those organizations are not confined to the Western Hemisphere. Mexican-linked methamphetamine production has emerged in Africa, first surfacing in

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jul 23 , 2026

Policy Brief

The Impact of Iranian Military Doctrine on the Iran War

Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, the United States spent about forty days in major combat operations against the Republic of Iran, followed by just over ninety days of a fragile ceasefire framework and attempted negotiations, punctuated by intermittent kinetic operations. As Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the

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Cybersecurity, Technology

Jul 9 , 2026

Policy Brief

Washington’s AI Ban and Reversal Exposed the Bigger Problem: It Can’t Measure Cyber Risk in the Real World

Anthropic’s Mythos/Fable model ban showed Washington acting on a lab signal it could measure while flying blind on the one it can’t. On June 12, the Commerce Department ordered Anthropic to cut off foreign-national access to its two most capable models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5. The reason, according to

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP

Jul 1 , 2026

Research Report

A Neighbor in Focus: Mexico’s Role in Emerging U.S. Defense & Homeland Security Strategies

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Introduction This project evaluates how the 2025 National Security Strategy positions Mexico within U.S. homeland defense and regional security, measuring the alignment between strategic objectives, NORTHCOM/SOUTHCOM posture statements, and operational resourcing. We evaluate these positions to understand Mexico’s place in the current Trump administration’s hemispheric strategies. Mexico’s role in U.S.

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 29 , 2026

Policy Brief

How the War with Iran is Redrawing the Rules of Maritime Power

Following the intensification of the Israeli-US military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program in spring 2025, the region stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean has entered a new phase of strategic turbulence. Beyond missile strikes, air operations, and tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, the conflict is highlighting a deeper transformation

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Defense & Security, Terrorism & Extremism, Africa, Europe & Central Asia

May 6 , 2026

Policy Brief

Mali’s Fracture Will be Felt in West Africa and Beyond

Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM is on the brink of taking over northern Mali and toppling the Malian junta, and while it is unlikely to directly seize power across Mali, Mali’s fracturing will have seismic consequences in West Africa and beyond. The group launched its most coordinated and significant offensive

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