What Works in Counterterrorism and What Doesn’t?

Tren de Aragua – Background and Transnational Challenge

The Iran War and Ankara’s Three Strategic Scenarios

Regime Change is Only Legitimate If Iranians Take The Lead

An AI Revolution for Small Businesses Lies in Smarter Scaffolding, Not Just Bigger Models

Promoting Evidence-based Policy and Good Governance

Defense & Security, Terrorism & Extremism

Apr 1 , 2026

Op-Ed

What Works in Counterterrorism and What Doesn’t?

Terrorism and counterterrorism have been significant concerns after terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, in the United States. The concerns have valid reasons. Currently, the U.S. State Department lists approximately 70 Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) as of early 2026 [1]. In addition to domestic violent extremist groups, the FTOs pose

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas

Mar 17 , 2026

Policy Brief

Tren de Aragua – Background and Transnational Challenge

Craig Thomas

Editor’s Note: This policy brief is Part III of an Orion Policy Institute (OPI) Transnational Crime Project (OPI-TCP) series and culminating report examining Venezuela’s transnational criminal networks, their regional security implications, and the evolving U.S. policy response. Introduction The rapid expansion of Tren de Aragua (TdA) from a Venezuelan prison

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Mar 7 , 2026

Policy Brief

The Iran War and Ankara’s Three Strategic Scenarios

Suleyman Ozeren

The Iran war puts Turkey in a peculiar position, posing several challenges. Since the beginning of the US and Israel’s military confrontation with Iran, Turkey has adopted cautious neutrality, which aimed to avoid the escalation of tensions with either side of the conflict. However, the question is how sustainable Ankara’s

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Democracy & Human Rights, Middle East

Mar 4 , 2026

Op-Ed

Regime Change is Only Legitimate If Iranians Take The Lead

Colin Pascal

President Trump’s decision to undertake military operations against Iran was a bold, albeit risky move that has the potential to reshape the Middle East. As casualties mount on both sides, it’s critical that the U.S. government determines it’s aims. So far, the administration hasn’t been clear on what it hopes

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Mar 2 , 2026

Op-Ed

An AI Revolution for Small Businesses Lies in Smarter Scaffolding, Not Just Bigger Models

Suleyman Demirci

The potential of artificial intelligence for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) remains paradoxical. While AI promises to level a playing field long dominated by large corporations, its adoption is often stalled before any technical work begins. According to the OECD’s 2025 survey on SME digitalization, cost-related barriers, including maintenance expenses,

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Defense & Security, Americas

Feb 27 , 2026

Expert Panel

Securing the Homeland Against Drone Threats: Policy and the Challenge of Decentralized Authority

Suat Cubukcu

By Suat Cubukcu, Editor With contributions from Austin Doctor, Bill Edwards, Scott Parker, and DJ Smith (listed alphabetically) The rapid proliferation of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) has created both opportunity and vulnerability. While drones increasingly support commerce, public safety, agriculture, and infrastructure inspection, their accessibility also lowers the barrier

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas

Feb 26 , 2026

Op-Ed

Does the Kingpin Strategy Work?

Daniel Weisz Argomedo, Gabriel D. Klinger

Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, commonly known as “El Mencho,” was captured in Tapalpa, Jalisco, less than 100 miles south of the capital, Guadalajara. During the military operation, a battle ensued, and Oseguera was injured and passed away from his injuries on a military helicopter, at which point the decision was made

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas

Feb 23 , 2026

Policy Brief

Understanding the Structure and Resilience of Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles

Rafaella Lipschitz

Editor’s Note: This policy brief is Part II of an Orion Policy Institute (OPI) Transnational Crime Project (OPI-TCP) series and culminating report examining Venezuela’s transnational criminal networks, their regional security implications, and the evolving U.S. policy response. In November 2025, the United States designated the Cartel de los Soles (CDS)

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Latest Research

Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Oct 7 , 2025

Research

Cyber Espionage and U.S. Policy Responses

Suleyman Ozeren, Kate Shymkiv

Introduction Between September 1986 and June 1987, a group of German hackers conducted the first recorded act of cyber espionage, breaching US civil and military organizations and selling stolen data to the Soviet KGB. Since then, cyber espionage has become an evolving threat and state-sponsored campaigns targeting sensitive government and

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Africa

Sep 5 , 2025

Policy Brief

Betting on Addis Ababa: Meloni’s African Strategy Between Realpolitik and Risk

Federico Donelli

At a time when Ethiopia is experiencing domestic instability, Rome is doubling down on its support for Abiy Ahmed — a bold move that combines opportunity with significant political risk. The Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s visit on 27–28 July 2025 — which marks her second trip in two years

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Terrorism & Extremism, Americas

Sep 2 , 2025

Research Report

MS-13 Unmasked: Anatomy of a Decentralized Network

Suleyman Ozeren, Suat Cubukcu, Gabriel D. Klinger, Jacob Pritchard

Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), a designated foreign terrorist organization (FTO) and transnational criminal organization (TCO) by the U.S. federal government, has its origins in Los Angeles, California, in the 1980s. At that time, El Salvador was engulfed in a civil war between the government and leftist guerrilla forces, most notably the

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Democracy & Human Rights, Africa

Aug 19 , 2025

Research

Women and the Path for Peace in Africa: Ethiopia

Ayse Ergene, Virginia Buffum

Ethiopia today is characterized by growing fragmentation and eruptions of violence since the catastrophic Tigray war. The civil war, which lasted from 2020 to 2022, has claimed more than 500,000 soldiers and 360,000 civilians, making it one of the deadliest conflicts since the end of the Cold War. Beyond the

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Democracy & Human Rights, Americas

Aug 7 , 2025

Policy Brief

The Security and Humanitarian Crisis in Haiti and Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

Jackie Ducharme

Haiti is on the verge of a total institutional collapse, with only 10% of the capital in control of the Haitian government—a government entrenched with corruption.[i] Instead, Haitian gangs are nearing total control of the capital and Haitian authorities can no longer combat the escalating violence.[ii] The current crisis goes

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Terrorism & Extremism, Middle East

Jul 26 , 2025

Research Report

The Houthi Drone Supply Chain

Suat Cubukcu, Evan Jordan

The Houthi movement, designated by the U.S. as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), has emerged as the most prolific violent non-state actor employing Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). According to GTTAC data, the group has conducted 388 drone attacks from 2018 to 2024, targeting a wide array of actors, including the

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