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A Need for Informed Policy Against Critical Cyberattacks: The ROCCA Project
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The Impact of Iranian Military Doctrine on the Iran War
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Urban Warfare: Cities, Crime, and the Future of Conflict
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Promoting Evidence-based Policy and Good Governance

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jul 23 , 2026

Policy Brief

The Impact of Iranian Military Doctrine on the Iran War

Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, the United States spent about forty days in major combat operations against the Republic of Iran, followed by just over ninety days of a fragile ceasefire framework and attempted negotiations, punctuated by intermittent kinetic operations. As Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the

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Defense & Security

Jul 18 , 2026

Podcast

Urban Warfare: Cities, Crime, and the Future of Conflict

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In this Orion Talks episode, hosted by Suat Cubukcu, John Sullivan, Nathan Jones, and Daniel Weisz Argomedo explore how urban warfare is reshaping modern conflict. Drawing on their book Urban Operations: War, Crime, and Conflict, they examine the increasingly blurred lines between conventional warfare, organized crime, terrorism, and criminal insurgencies

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Jul 13 , 2026

Op-Ed

A Need for Informed Policy Against Critical Cyberattacks: The ROCCA Project

According to data from the Orion Policy Institute’s newly launched Records of Critical Cyber Attacks (ROCCA) Project, China and Russia account for 458 originated cyberattacks, or 48% of the 954 incidents recorded between 2005 and 2025. The United States is the most targeted country, and these attacks have increased sharply

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Cyber Security & Info Technologies

Jul 9 , 2026

Policy Brief

Washington’s AI Ban and Reversal Exposed the Bigger Problem: It Can’t Measure Cyber Risk in the Real World

Anthropic’s Mythos/Fable model ban showed Washington acting on a lab signal it could measure while flying blind on the one it can’t. On June 12, the Commerce Department ordered Anthropic to cut off foreign-national access to its two most capable models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5. The reason, according to

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Defense & Security, Americas, OPI-TCP

Jul 1 , 2026

Research Report

A Neighbor in Focus: Mexico’s Role in Emerging U.S. Defense & Homeland Security Strategies

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Introduction This project evaluates how the 2025 National Security Strategy positions Mexico within U.S. homeland defense and regional security, measuring the alignment between strategic objectives, NORTHCOM/SOUTHCOM posture statements, and operational resourcing. We evaluate these positions to understand Mexico’s place in the current Trump administration’s hemispheric strategies. Mexico’s role in U.S.

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 29 , 2026

Policy Brief

How the War with Iran is Redrawing the Rules of Maritime Power

Following the intensification of the Israeli-US military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program in spring 2025, the region stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean has entered a new phase of strategic turbulence. Beyond missile strikes, air operations, and tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, the conflict is highlighting a deeper transformation

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Crime & Justice, Transnational Crime, Americas, OPI-TCP

Jun 15 , 2026

Op-Ed

Tren de Aragua’s Fall and Delcy Rodríguez’s Rise

On June 12, President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces had killed Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, better known as Niño Guerrero, the founder and top leader of Tren de Aragua, in a swift kinetic strike on Venezuelan soil. According to the White House, the operation was conducted in close coordination

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Defense & Security, Middle East

Jun 10 , 2026

Op-Ed

Decapitation Strikes and the Problem of Strategic Prediction

Months after the U.S. agreed to a cease fire with Iran, America has struggled to achieve its core objectives. Iranian military capabilities were severely degraded during the fighting, but neither the U.S. nor Israel has been able to impose its will. Iranian intransigence seems to have surprised American policy makers.

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Latest Research

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Defense & Security, Transnational Crime, Americas, Indo – Pacific

Dec 8 , 2025

Policy Brief

Operation Southern Spear and the Escalation Against Narcotraffickers

More than two months have passed since our last assessment on Airstrikes in the Caribbean, yet U.S. action against suspected Venezuelan narcotraffickers has accelerated, expanding in both scope and frequency. The situation has evolved into a sustained operation with far-reaching implications for U.S. policy and regional security. What began as

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Defense & Security, Europe & Central Asia

Nov 18 , 2025

Policy Brief

Rising Tensions: The U.S.–Russia Standoff and Its Consequences for NATO and Ukraine

Introduction President Donald Trump recently accused Russia of conducting underground nuclear tests, while President Vladimir Putin, responding to U.S. discussions about providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, warned that such a move would mark a “qualitatively new stage of escalation.”[1] These developments signal a renewed rise in U.S.-Russia tensions and highlight

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Democracy & Human Rights, Terrorism & Extremism, Africa

Nov 11 , 2025

Policy Brief

Sudan: Theatre Where Many, Competing Interests Meet and Clash

After 18 months of siege marked by starvation, targeted killings, and sexual violence, El Fasher – the capital of North Darfur – fell to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). As of the time of this writing, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) control most of the north, east, and central regions,

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Defense & Security, Africa

Nov 6 , 2025

Policy Brief

Bridging Land and Sea: Rethinking Security in the Red Sea Arena

The Red Sea has shifted from a central shipping lane to a strategically important area linking Africa, Arabia, the Indo-Pacific, and global powers. The distinction between land and sea is fading — as are old assumptions about regional order. From Peripheral Sea to Global Chokepoint Long seen as a peripheral

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Defense & Security, South Asia

Oct 31 , 2025

Policy Brief

ASEAN Summit 2025: Navigating Great-Power Rivalry in Kuala Lumpur

From October 25 to 28, the ASEAN 47th Summit in Kuala Lumpur became the world’s most important diplomatic scenario. The summit gathered thirty heads of state and government, including U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. The gathering, thus, has been crucial not only for the future of

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Americas

Oct 24 , 2025

Research

Funding Gaps and Service Cuts: Reimagining Public Transit for an Equitable Future

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Executive Summary Many major American metropolitan public transportation organizations are confronting critical funding shortfalls in the coming years, which they warn will force them to implement drastic service reductions and fare increases without further investment. Among other benefits, public transportation is a vital resource for vulnerable and disadvantaged communities, who

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